Thursday, February 18, 2010

'I can latch on seamlessly to the previous blog post, as rumours are floating again about the next Israeli attack – the Turkish and French governments have reportedly both warned Lebanon of an imminent assault. Recently, some dude even claimed on NBN (Amal’s TV station) that Netanyahu has set – and announced – the date for February 20th, which would be awfully – and untypically – friendly of the guy… Qifa Nabki does a comprehensive round-up of the possible trigger scenarios. An excerpt (quoting an anonymous analyst): ‘With the specter of the Goldstone Report hovering above their heads, the Israelis are looking for a swift and violent campaign that can be waged and completed before the international community can mobilize. By the time the UNSC is being badgered to take action, Israel can declare the operation over and wag a finger at the Lebanese and say “Now, don’t do it again”. That might work if the Lebanese crawl from under the rubble and say “Gee, thanks Israel for stopping the bombing”. But what happens when Hezbollah continues firing rockets into Israel and starts sending their boys across the border even as the Israelis are declaring mission accomplished? The Israelis will have to react, and that’s where they face getting sucked into a massively destructive and prolonged conflict, with the international community sharpening its pencils for Goldstone II. Hezbollah’s boys seem to genuinely believe that the next war will be the final one with Israel. In 2006 they fought defensively and reactively. Next time, they say, they are going offensive with all that entails for both sides.’

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